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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."