🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.